– a website dedicated to space exploration, climate change, the rise and fall of paper assets, and other topics
– maintained by Dr. Donald Rapp (drdrapp@earthlink.net)
This book is divided into two parts. Part one describes the phenomenon of boom-bubble-bust cycles. Along the way, I describe the roles of the income tax structure, the Federal Reserve, debt (federal, state, municipal and personal), and monetary policy in these cycles. I also relate these bubbles to wealth and inequality in America, and regulation vs. deregulation vs. no regulation of financial institutions. It is shown that the #1 priority of the Federal Reserve is to prop up paper asset markets (stocks and real estate). It is also shown that since Reagan was elected, income taxes for the wealthy have been the lowest since the late 1920s, producing a “trickle-up” effect and exacerbating the gap between rich and poor. Over the past thirty years, since the Reagan administration, America (and the world as well) has been on a binge of borrowing, amassing huge amounts of debt. In the case of the US federal debt, there is no way that this debt can ever be repaid, and interest on the debt is paid out of new borrowings – which fits the definition of a Ponzi scheme. This debt has fueled bubbles in stock and real estate markets, and although real wages have risen very slowly, paper assets have grown remarkably during these three decades. Americans have become prosperity junkies based primarily from asset value growth and borrowing, and to a much lesser degree from increased productivity and wage growth. However we have now reached the point where continued inflation of paper assets and increased debt have reached fundamental limits. The solutions proposed for the current financial crisis are aimed at reinflating bubbles: borrow more to deal with too much debt, and spend more to deal with large deficits. Americans can now only choose between “tax, borrow and spend” Democrats and “spend and borrow” Republicans. Amidst all of this, two names appear and reappear as evil spirits that steered America toward bubble-itis. They are Reagan in the first place, and over a longer haul, Arthur Greenspan who was the ultimate architect of living off bubbles and debt.
Part two provides analyses of a few historical bubbles, including the roaring twenties, and quite a few more recent bubbles. The S&L crisis of the 1980s was a bubble created by a fundamental instability in our banking system when short-term interest rates rise, causing banks holding fixed mortgages to run in the red. Reagan’s approach to dealing with this was to bury his head in the sand and deregulating the S&Ls, allowing them to be taken over by speculators who ran them into the ground while extracting huge personal profits. He also instituted really large-scale federal borrowing. The S&L crisis of the 1980s was a forerunner of the current real estate crisis for which there are many parallels. The causes were deregulation turned into no regulation, coupled with an ample money supply based on debt. The problem for today is that legislators are trying to get the consumer to spend more, but the consumer already spent his 2009-2010 money back in 2005-2006 when borrowed the 2009-2010 money in expectation of paper profits from asset growth.
The U. S. Government Ponzi Scheme
There is no “solution” to the current crisis. You cannot create prosperity forever by borrowing and inflating paper. Americans are going to have to get used to spending their earnings, not their borrowings. That means we are not as wealthy as we might have thought we were, and our only choice is to retrench.
I am constantly amazed that the people of the world continue to invest in the U. S. Ponzi scheme. Yet they do! Comparing the US debt to the GNP has no meaning to me. Maybe we should compare it to the speed of light? What matters is how are they going to pay back the debt – and the short answer is they can’t. They can't raise taxes without a rebellion, and anyway, a significant tax increase would bring on a bigger depression. So the debt is a permanent overhang that provides the US Government with additional funds that people over the world have contributed with no hope of repayment. Pretty good deal?
I wish I could borrow unlimited funds at 3% interest and pay the interest from additional borrowings. Then I would be like the US government. But that is the definition of a Ponzi scheme.
The deficits produced by the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 were made palatable in the short run by (a) excess SS collections, and (b) expansion of the AMT, but they still ran up substantial deficits. The Bush tax cuts are clearly untenable for the intermediate run, and amount to a sort of Ponzi scheme for temporary tax relief for the rich while dumping on the poor and the middle class.
Debt may have many virtues in the right circumstances. For example, it makes complete sense that families should borrow to purchase a primary residence, taking up to 30 years to repay the loan, because (a) it is reasonable to expect continued employment and earnings for such a period, (b) in any event, the value of the loan is protected by the inherent value of the residence , and (c) real estate values tend to be relatively stable. It would not make any sense at all to require that residences be purchased for cash; very few would be sold. Similarly, a corporation that uses debt to invest in new facilities, capabilities or ventures with the reasonable prospect of recouping much more than the amount borrowed, would be using debt effectively. However, when debt is used to fund operating expenses (as opposed to capital investments with prospects for increased future payoff) then there is typically little prospect for repaying the debt, and it amounts to a swindle. When governments borrow in order to build infrastructure (whether it be a bridge, a water system, or whatnot) with the intent to pay it back from credible tax levels, it is appropriate and sensible. However, when governments operate with a continuing deficit and borrow to cover operating expenses with little hope of repayment from future revenues, that amounts to a Ponzi scheme.
Global Warming
Alternate Theory of Global Warming – Arctic warming in the 20th century occurred in two steps, from 1900-1940 and from the mid-1970s to 2005. The first warming was significant and rapid, and occurred prior to buildup of CO2. It seems likely that this was primarily due to deposition of black carbon (BC) generated in northern mid-latitudes that was deposited on Arctic snow and ice. The dip in temperatures from 1940 to the 1970s appears to be related to the sharp buildup of sulfate aerosols that occurred during that period as growth in BC emissions abated. The temperature rise after the 1970s has been widely attributed to CO2 gas buildup, but other factors (BC, sulfate aerosols, persistent El Niños, and persistent positive NAO indices) appear to have contributed significantly. Whether global warming originates in the Arctic region and spreads equatorward, or originates worldwide and gets amplified in the Arctic, remains an enigma. Contents:
1. EARLY AND LATE 20TH CENTURY WARMING
2. ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCES
3. EFFECT OF CARBON DEPOSITION ON ICE AND SNOW
4. RATE OF EMISSION OF CARBON IN THE 20TH CENTURY
5. ESTIMATED ROLE OF BC IN ARCTIC WARMING
6. MEASUREMENT OF BC IN ICE CORES
6.1 GREENLAND ICE CORES
6.2 ALPINE ICE CORES
7. AEROSOLS
8. CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN - THE ENSO TRANSITION IN 1977
9. NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND OCEAN OSCILLATIONS
10. SUMMARY
Space Technology
C-60 as a propellant for electric propulsion – The current propellant of choice for ion thrusters is Xe. The purpose of this report is to present results of analyses that estimate the potential advantages of using C60 ("Buckminsterfullerene") as a replacement for Xe. This report contains five sections which address the following issues: 1 ) Estimation of the ionization cross section of C60 2) Comparison of the efficiency of C60 and xenon ion thrusters as a function of specific impulse 3) Effect of double ion formation on thruster efficiency 4) Effect of propellant ion fragmentation on ion thruster efficiency 5) Comparison of ion thruster diameters for C60 and xenon propellants These issues all play a role in determining the possible benefits of developing an ion thruster which uses C60, rather than xenon, as a propellant.
Initial mass in LEO for human Mars missions (2007) – All of the NASA preliminary plans for human missions to Mars involve transfer of some assets to Mars orbit, and some assets to the Mars surface. A widely accepted surrogate for estimating mission cost for future human missions to Mars is the required initial mass in low Earth orbit (IMLEO). This, in turn can be calculated for any specific mission design by estimating how much mass must be delivered to Mars orbit (MMO) and how much mass must be delivered to the Mars surface (MMS), and multiplying each figure by its appropriate "gear ratio:" mass required in LEO to deliver one mass unit to Mars orbit or the Mars surface. The overall gear ratio for transfer from LEO to Mars can be subdivided into a product of subordinate gear ratio factors for each step along the way. Gear ratios for propulsive steps can be estimated from the rocket equation. Gear ratios were estimated for various mission steps using several chemical propulsion systems. For aero-assisted orbit insertion and entry, descent and landing, the recent models developed by B. Braun and the Georgia Tech team, were used to estimate entry system masses.
In Situ Resource Utilization – Lunar and Mars (2008) – In situ resource utilization (ISRU) on the Moon or Mars is an approach for converting indigenous resources into various products (primarily propellants and life support consumables) that are needed for a space mission. By utilizing indigenous resources, the amount of materiel that must be brought from Earth may be reduced, thus reducing the Initial Mass in Low Earth Orbit (IMLEO.) IMLEO is typically used as a measure of the mission scope and cost.
Lunar ISRU suffers from the need for high-temperature processing or a lack of abundant accessible feedstocks, depending on the process. Several approaches are under study but the practicality of these processes is doubtful. In addition, NASA lunar mission planning appears to include approaches and requirements that may reduce or even obviate the potential for ISRU to provide mission benefits.
By contrast, Mars ISRU processes are simple to implement and they utilize abundant resources. The potential mission impact is significant. The key to practical Mars ISRU is acquiring water as a feedstock from near-surface deposits that have been discovered from orbit with a neutron spectrometer. Unfortunately, several years ago, NASA stopped funding Mars ISRU (which is practical) and is presently funding lunar ISRU (which appears to be impractical). Furthermore, NASA’s Mars Program does not seem to have any intention of exploiting these water resources for leveraging Mars surface missions.
Life support for human Mars missions (2007) - A critical element of planning human missions to Mars involves life support systems. The amount of air, food, water and waste disposal materials actually consumed in human missions to Mars will total well over 100 metric tons and possibly as much as 200 metric tons. If recycling is not employed, this will translate back into an equivalent mass required in low Earth orbit whereby this figure would increase by at least a factor of seven, depending on mission architecture, requiring at least half a dozen heavy-lift launches solely for life support, and thus driving the cost and complexity of human missions to Mars beyond any reasonable limit. Recycling and possibly in situ utilization of indigenous Mars water resources are therefore critical enabling capabilities for human missions to Mars. Previous "design reference missions" assumed that high-performance life support systems would function flawlessly for the ~ 2.7 year round trip to Mars. However, life support systems developed for the International Space Station do not appear to have the longevity and reliability needed for Mars. As NASA moves forward with the current human exploration initiative, we need some means of estimating the required mass of life support system that goes beyond wild optimistic guesses. NASA's Advanced Life Support (ALS) project has been advancing the technology of recycling of water and air resources ("environmental control and life support systems) in human space missions for some time. Emphasis has been placed on recovery percentage and trace contaminant removal. Mass estimates for physical plant and back-up caches are provided by NASA. A critical review was carried out based on NASA reports dealing with life support systems and these were judged in the context of "design reference missions" for humans making the round trip to Mars. ALS estimates of masses of life support systems are based on research and analysis, but the sources of reported performance data are not traceable to experimental data, and the reliability and lifetime of these systems is very uncertain. These estimates are optimistic, and when translated into engineering systems requiring margins, spares and fail-safe performance, are likely to increase significantly. Nevertheless, even these optimistic estimates require a significant initial mass in low Earth orbit for life support, estimated as 240 metric tons. Life support remains at best, a significant mass, cost and risk factor for human missions to Mars, and at worst a major show stopper.
Lunar ISRU (2006) – It's all just a dream babe, a vacuum, a scheme babe, ... - Bob Dylan
If a committee is allowed to discuss a bad idea long enough, it will eventually adopt it because of all the work they put into it. - K. Kruickshank
In situ resource utilization (ISRU) is a concept for increasing the efficiency of space missions by utilizing indigenous resources on a planet or moon in order to reduce the amount of materiel that must be brought from Earth. If the savings resulting from reduction of resources brought from Earth outweigh the cost of prospecting, developing, testing, validating in situ, and implementing ISRU in missions, it follows that ISRU will have a favorable benefit/cost ratio. While many ISRU advocates within NASA seem to take it on faith that the benefit/cost ratio is always favorable for ISRU, my analysis indicates that this is not always so. Whereas a stronger case can be made for use of ISRU on human missions to Mars, the case for lunar ISRU in the current ESAS architecture does not stand up to scrutiny. Nevertheless, the belief in the virtues of ISRU has been proclaimed so many times by NASA that in an Orwellian sense, it is widely accepted – at least within a certain community. The recent NASA exploration architecture analysis for lunar exploration (popularly known as the "ESAS Report") mentions the term "ISRU" 110 times. The ESAS Report repeats the standard mantra: "ISRU: Technologies for 'living off the land' are needed to support a long-term strategy for human exploration." However, NASA's approach to lunar mission analysis and its connection to ISRU is often disjointed. For example, the ESAS Report says: "The lander’s ascent stage uses LOX/methane propulsion to carry the crew back into lunar orbit to rendezvous with the waiting CEV. The lander’s propulsion system is chosen to make it compatible with ISRU-produced propellants and common with the CEV SM propulsion system." However a later modification of the architecture eliminated use of oxygen propellants for ascent, making the architecture incompatible with ISRU.
Mars Life Support (2006) – Life support, as defined by the NASA Advanced Life Support Project (ALS), includes the following elements:
• Air
• Biomass
• Food
• Thermal
• Waste
• Water
Each of these elements interacts in a comprehensive overall system that maximizes recycling of waste products. These systems are complex and highly interactive. ALS has provided tables of data on estimated masses for life support systems, but without a strong connection to experimental data and validation, these data are of dubious validity. There is a spirit of optimism that pervades ALS. The requirements for life support for the lengthy excursions involved in Mars missions require further study. This paper makes rough estimates of macro requirements for a crew of six over Mars mission segments.
Review of JSC life support for Mars (2006) – Reviews JSC's optimistic estimates for life support for a human mission to Mars and brings them down to Earth (and Mars).
NASA Technology Blueprint (2003) – An official NASA document that provides a prioritized plan to develop technology for NASA missions. The purpose of this Blueprint was to document the technologies required to implement the future missions of the NASA Space Science Enterprise (SSE). The Blueprint provides a synoptic view of technology needs and gaps in present programs addressing these needs, offering a good perspective for guiding investment in new and evolving technologies for future missions. It also offers a vehicle for coordinating and integrating of technology needs of the various NASA Office of Space Science (OSS) Themes.
Precision Segmented Reflectors for Sub-Millimeter Astronomy (1992) – Describes how NASA spent $22 million from 1988 to 1992 in an attempt to develop technology for a so-called "large deploy(r)able reflector" - a submm telescope of 10-20 m diameter, and ended up with exactly nothing, and how I nearly got fired for criticizing it.
Propellant Depots in Space (2006) – A discussion of Griffin's proposal to establish propellant depots for space missions. One of the problems that seems to confuse discussions of future space missions is the difference in perspective of visionaries and realists. Visionaries tend to be far-sighted and look well beyond the current limitations and challenges to a conceptual realm where many things not presently possible, can be imagined. Nevertheless, without a clear pathway leading from here to there, envisaging a bright future is not very useful. By contrast, realists (like myself) face up to the immediate difficulties, but the danger is that realists can easily get bogged down by the enormity of current limitations and challenges, and end up concluding that nothing is possible. In regard to propellant depots, the visionaries hold sway. For example, a Georgia Tech team has proposed the use of LEO propellant depots and an innovative launch system for a futuristic space environment in which they plot performance metrics vs. number of flights per year, with the number of flights per year measured by hundreds up to 1000.
Radiation effects for human Mars missions (2007) – Describes challenges involved in coping with radiation in human missions to Mars. Radiation in space poses a threat to humans embarked on missions to the Moon or Mars. Several studies deal with allowable doses, levels of radiation doses in space, and effects of various forms of shielding. Recently, the shift in emphasis from "point estimates" to 95% confidence intervals adds significantly to the challenge in designing human space missions. Recent reports issued by NASA as well as the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) have estimated radiation effects for some mission scenarios. Nevertheless, radiation effects and the effectiveness of shielding remain uncertain. In preparing concepts for human missions to the Moon and Mars, it is necessary to have the best possible understanding of radiation effects that can be obtained. For lunar sortie missions, the duration is short enough that GCR creates no serious risks. For Mars missions, we conjecture a 400-day round trip transit to and from Mars, and about 560 days on the surface. The GCR 95% CI GCR dose equivalent with 15 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding during Solar Minimum is about double the allowable annual dose for each leg of the trip to and from Mars. If a major SPE occurred during a transit, the crew would receive a sufficient dose to reduce their life expectancy by more than the 3% limit. The probabilities of encountering a large SPE are about 2.4% for a 4X 1972 SPE and about 20% for a 1X 1972 SPE in a round trip of 400 days during Solar Maximum. On the surface of Mars, the accumulated GCR 95% CI dose over the course of a year is about 77 cSv, which exceeds the annual allowable of 50 cSv. For a 560-day stay on Mars, the cumulative 95% CI dose is about 120 cSv. This would exceed the career allowable dose for most females and younger males. The 95% CI dose from a major SPE would exceed the 30-day allowable dose. The probabilities of encountering a large SPE are about 3.4% for a 4X 1972 SPE and about 28% for a 1X 1972 SPE for 560 days on the surface during Solar Maximum.
Solar Energy on Mars (2005) – Everything you wanted to know about solar energy on Mars.
Solar Power Systems on the Moon (2007) – Everything you wanted to know about solar availability on the Moon and lunar power systems.
Space Solar Power (2007) – Astropolitics journal article on beamed solar power from space. Solar power satellites to beam electric power down to Earth from orbit, or the Moon, is a concept that can potentially provide the world with clean energy. However, the technical, environmental, political, and legal challenges are great. The size and scope of the solar arrays needed by SPS are orders of magnitude beyond the scope of any solar arrays ever used in space missions. Assembly onorbit is another major challenge. The cost to transport mass to geostationary Earth orbit would have to be reduced by a large factor to make this technology competitive. Furthermore, the need to invest substantial capital for many decades before any payback will make financing of such ventures difficult. After an initial burst of enthusiasm in the late 1970s, further development of space power concepts has been sporadic. The concepts do not appear to be affordable or practical. The alternative of beaming power from the Moon has the potential advantage that the solar arrays could possibly be fabricated on the Moon from indigenous resources. Nevertheless, lunar solar power concepts suffer from many of the difficulties associated with solar power satellites in geostationary Earth orbit.
Space Solar Power, He-3 from the Moon for fusion, and Lunar ISRU (2007) – A report with three separate sections on beamed solar power from space (more detailed than Astropolitics paper), He-3 as a resource for fusion, and lunar ISRU.
Staging and Propellant Depots in Space (2006) – Analysis of proposal to use staging and propellant depots to enable a short-stay mission to Mars. It is shown that the short-stay mission remains impractical, despite claims made in theliterature.
Transporting Hydrogen in Space (2007) – Everything I knew in 2007 about space transport and storage of hydrogen.
Water on Mars (2006) – Everything I knew in 2006 about water on Mars. Includes temperatures and solar energy onMars, theoretical models of ice stnbility on Mars, experimental data on detection of water on Mars, and requirements for lqiuid water on Mars.
Presentations:
Ice Ages and Interglacials (2009) – A summary of data and comparison with theory as taken from my book on ice ages. 63 slides for 2.5 hours of presentation.
Global Warming (2009) – Describes 20th century Arctic climate change in three steps: 1900-1940 warming, 1940-1975 cooling, and 1975-2005 warming. The first step was undoubtedly due to black carbon. Potential causes for steps 2 and 3 are discussed. 39 slides for 1.5 hours of presentation.
Alternate Theory of global warming (2009) - 41 slides
Energy and Climate (2008) – Discusses the related issues of providing the world with energy in the 21st century and global warming. 62 slides for 2.5 hour presentation.
Human missions to Mars (2006) – Discusses challenges involved in a human mission to Mars based on my book. 42 slides for 1.5 hour presentation.
Life and Water on Mars (2006) – Deals with two topics: The crazy NASA emphasis on the search for life on Mars that is almost certainly going to end in failure; and the distribution of water on Mars. 36 slides for 1 hour presentation.
In-situ resource utilization on Mars (2006) – Summarizes the potential impact of using ISRU for human missions to Mars. 16 slides for one hour presentation.
Quantum Mechanics (1971)
Statistical Mechanics (1972)
Solar Energy (1981)
Assessing Climate Change (2008)
Ice Ages and Interglacials (2009)
by Donald Rapp 1971
Hardcover, 672 pages, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, ISBN 0030812941 (0-03-081294-1)
out of print; used copies available at:
Statistical Mechanics
by Donald Rapp 1972
Hardcover, 330 pages, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, ISBN 0030856531 (0-03-085653-1) out of print; used copies available at:
Solar Energy
by Donald Rapp 1981
Hardcover, 516 pages, Prentice-Hall, ISBN 0138222134 (0-13-822213-4)
out of print; used copies available at:
Human Missions to Mars: Enabling Technologies for Exploring the Red Planet
by Donald Rapp, hardback, 520 pages, October, 2007 ISBN: 978-3-540-72938-9; two 8-page color sections
A human mission to Mars would be the pinnacle of Solar System exploration, representing not only an inspiring engineering achievement, but also the creation of a new era of expansion of humanity into space. Although NASA and others have developed scenarios for how such a mission might be carried out, many of the assumptions were optimistic and many details were left out. Because once embarked to Mars, there is no return to Earth for about 2.7 years, every system must be exquisitely reliable.
This book takes a critical view of the requirements for human missions to Mars from an engineering perspective. It discusses in detail all the technologies that need to be developed and demonstrated and examines the full range of elements critical to such missions, including recycling of life support consumables, radiation effects and shielding, aero-assisted orbit insertion and entry descent and landing amongst much else. The initial mass in low Earth orbit is used as a guide for Mission feasibility.
Lavishly illustrated, Human Missions to Mars is a highly readable yet realistic view of the possible future of the exploration of the Red Planet. For the first time it brings together a wide range of material currently fragmented in the literature, and presents a cogent argument against the overly-optimistic forecasts promulgated by NASA, the Mars Society and others. At the same time, it presents a plan to establish the technical basis for a credible human mission to Mars.
Assessing Climate Change – Temperatures, Solar Radiation and Heat Balance
Series: Springer Praxis Books – Environmental Sciences
by Donald Rapp, hardback, 410 pages, March 2008 ISBN: 978-3-540-76586-8; two 8-page color sections
In ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE Donald Rapp has investigated a large body of scientific data relevant to climate change, approaching each element with necessary (but neutral) scientific skepticism. The chapters of the book attempt to answer a number of essential questions in relation to global warming and climate change. He begins by showing how the earth’s climate has varied in the past, discussing ice ages, the Holocene period since the end of the last ice age, particularly during the past 1000 years. He investigates the reliability of "proxies" for historical temperatures and assesses the hockey stick version of global temperatures for the past millennium. To do this effectively he looks carefully at how well near surface temperatures of land and ocean on earth have been monitored during the past 100 years or more, and looks at the utility and significance of a single global average temperature.
Topics such as the variability of the Sun and the Earth’s heat balance are discussed in considerable detail. The author also investigates how the current global warming trend compares with past fluctuations in earth’s climate and what is the likelihood that the warming trend we are experiencing now is primarily just another in a series of natural climate fluctuations as opposed to a direct result of human activities. A key factor in understanding what may happen in the future is to examine the credibility of the global climate models which claim that greenhouse gasses produce most of the temperature rise of the 20th Century, and forecast much greater impacts in the century ahead.
Finally, the book considers future global energy requirements, fossil fuel usage and carbon dioxide production, public policy relating to global warming, and agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol.
by Donald Rapp, 266 pages
This book studies the history and gives an analysis of extreme climate change on Earth. In order to provide a long-term perspective, the first chapter briefly reviews some of the wild gyrations that occurred in the Earth’s climate hundreds of millions of years ago: snowball Earth and hothouse Earth. Coming closer to modern times, the effects of continental drift, particularly the closing of the Isthmus of Panama are believed to have contributed to the advent of ice ages in the past three million years. This first chapter sets the stage for a discussion of ice ages in the geological recent past (i.e. within the last three million years, with an emphasis on the last few hundred thousand years).
The second chapter discusses geological evidence for ice ages – how geologists surmised their existence prior to actual subsurface data that proved the theory. The following two chapters look at ice cores (primarily from Greenland and Antarctica). Chapter 3 discusses how ice core data is processed and Chapter 4 summarizes data obtained from ice cores. Chapter 5 discusses the processing of data obtained from ocean sediments, and summarizes the results, while the following chapter discusses data from other sources, such as "Devil’s Cave."
Chapter 7 summarizes the experimental results from Chapters 4, 5, and 6. It provides the foundation for comparison with theories in later chapters. In a perfect world, this data would be totally separate and disconnected from theory. Unfortunately, as the author shows, dating of much of the data was accomplished by "tuning" to the astronomical theory, which introduces circular reasoning.
Chapter 8 provides a brief overview of the various theories that have been devised to "explain" the patterns of alternating ice ages and interglacials that have occurred over the past three million years. This serves as an introduction to the following three chapters which presents the astronomical theory in its various manifestations, compare the astronomical theory with data, and then compare other theories with data. Finally, Chapter 12 summarizes what we think we know about ice ages and, more importantly, what we don’t know.
Published by Praxis Publishing, April 27, 2009
by Donald Rapp, about 300 pages, published June 7, 2009 by Springer-Verlag/Copernicus Books
This book builds upon previous discussions of booms and busts, particularly those of John Kenneth Galbraith. The first part of the book describes that stages of buildup and collapse of financial manias in terms of human element. These are divided into speculations, bootstraps and swindles. Discussions are provided on the distribution of wealth in the US, the nature of inflation, the role of the Federal Reserve in promoting bubbles, tax history and policies, debt (federal, state, municipal and personal), banks and banking, pension plans, and valuation of common stock.
The book then goes on to describe specific boom/bubble/bust cycles with many examples including the Florida land boom of the 1920s, the bull market of the late 1920s, the depression of the 1930s, the savings and loan scandals of the 1980s, the great bull stock market of 1982 to 1995, the crash of 1987, the dot.com mania, the sub-prime fiasco of 2002-2007, and a number of other bubbles and swindles.
Water on the Moon is like water on the knee:
It gets your attention but it has no practical value.
It's all just a dream babe, a vacuum, a scheme babe, ... - Bob Dylan
If a committee is allowed to discuss a bad idea long enough, it will eventually adopt it because of all the work they put into it. - K. Kruickshank
NASA has asserted in a number of its documents that the utilization of indigenous lunar resources is a critical factor in exploration of the solar system. Water ice is regarded as one of the prime natural resources for exploitation. In principle, water ice can supply liquid water and oxygen for life support, and oxygen and hydrogen propellants for space travel. This requires accessing the water ice, acquiring the water ice, processing the water ice, and transporting the products to locations where it would be useful. This, in turn, requires expenditure of energy at each step. The value implicit in exploiting water resources on the Moon depends on two things: (1) the potential for utilization of products (hydrogen, oxygen and water), and (2) the cost (i.e. the complexity) of access, acquisition, processing and transport.
In my book: “Human Missions to Mars”, Praxis-Springer, 2007, I demonstrate that the potential for utilization of hydrogen, oxygen and water on the surface of the Moon is quite limited. However, the potential for utilization of hydrogen and oxygen in LEO is huge – if it can be delivered to LEO from the Moon efficiently. Propellants require a significant fraction of the mass delivered to LEO for deep space missions and if the Moon can supply such propellants that would be a boon to deep space exploration.
In the original NASA ESAS lunar architecture, the plan was to have two ascents per year from an outpost, each requiring about 4 metric tons (mT) of oxygen as oxidizer, for an annual need of roughly 8 mT of oxygen. However, there are two problems: (a) NASA decided to use space storable propellants for ascent, thus eliminating the need for oxygen; and (b) if NASA insists on an "abort-to-orbit" capability during descent, then ascent propellants will have to be available in lunar orbit prior to descent and the applicability of indigenous resources to ascent propellants becomes moot.
The putative value of use of indigenous lunar resources for human life support will depend on the performance of environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) for recycling air and water. If ECLSS performs as well as projected, use of lunar resources will cost more than the value added.
There may be some value in using lunar water to produce propellants for descent and ascent from the Moon, but this will require that (a) oxygen is used as a propellant for descent and ascent, (b) the use of lunar resources is built into the program from the beginning, not tacked on as an afterthought, (c) requirement for abort to orbit during descent is eliminated. Such a scheme does not match current NASA plans for lunar exploration.
The only significant potential payoff from tapping lunar water is delivering hydrogen and oxygen propellants to low earth orbit (LEO) from the Moon. Unfortunately, the requirement for leaving the Moon and entering earth orbit are so demanding that all of the water mined on the Moon is used up getting into LEO and no hydrogen and oxygen are actually delivered to LEO.
The problem of access, acquisition, processing and transport of lunar water ice located in dark crevices is daunting. No power is available in these dark areas, and the logistics of the operations are complex. My analysis shows that it would be simpler, more efficient, and cheaper to merely bring the water from earth rather than attempt to use lunar water ice.
See my report on lunar and Mars ISRU.
The Asinine DeepClimate.org Blog
The Internet provides a platform for all manner of donkeys to bray at will, hiding behind the cloak of anonymity provided by their use of pseudonyms. One particular egregious example is deepclimate.org, a weblog that specializes in moronic commentaries about climate change. The names and backgrounds of the followers and participants in deepclimate.org are unknown, and it seems likely that they may be mainly janitors, trash collectors and hash slingers, based on the idiotic comments that they send in. They subscribe to a belief system like a religion, and like all religious zealots, strike out at anyone with differing views. Their belief system is the orthodoxy that global warming in the 20th century was entirely due to greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, and that further growth of CO2 in the 21st century will produce great hardship and cost for mankind. They maintain this belief system in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary and viciously attack anyone who does not subscribe to their beliefs. They also believe that since most of the growth of CO2 in the past was due to emissions by developed nations, the developed nations should transfer a good deal of their wealth to undeveloped nations even though the undeveloped nations have produced most of the growth in world population – overpopulation is a much greater threat than global warming. Furthermore, they are so zealous in their orthodoxy that their anger, hatred and destructive fervor is vented on anyone and everyone who stands in their way.
In recent weeks, deepclimate.org came across my book “Assessing Climate Change” and its followers carried out a campaign to attack me, in reality for opposing their religion, but supposedly for a fantasized plagiarism. What they did was to compare the wording of a few passages in my book with a report written prior to my book by a Professor Wegman. First they accused me of ghost writing the Wegman Report. That produced about 50 entries on the blog in which they vilified me and threatened to expose me. Then, they made a U-turn and accused me of having plagiarized the Wegman Report, and added another 50 entries on the blog where they further vilified me and threatened to expose me as the “great satan” of climate change. They ignored the fact that in a hundred places in the book, I quoted the comments of various investigators with proper attribution, and more specifically, in half a dozen places I quoted the words of Wegman and gave proper attribution to him. It may well be that in one or two places I used paragraphs from Wegman without attribution, and if so, it was clearly an inadvertency – an oversight. There could be nothing for me to gain by not attributing these passages to him since I had already stated in the book that I had based my discussion on his work and I gave him full credit in half a dozen places. Hence, to accuse me of plagiarism was clearly a vituperative aggressive act having no basis whatsoever. Yet, the donkeys on deepclimate.org still, to this day, continue this irrational vilification. One must wonder about these people, hiding behind a cloak of anonymity, with nothing better to do than read passages of my book and the Wegman Report, comparing them word by word, in a vain attempt to prove some form of malfeasance. There are 300 pages of technical detail in the book and none of this was attacked; only a false fantasy that somehow I was in league with Wegman on one or two pages of the book; first as his ghostwriter, and then as his plagiarizer. And who are these masked men that won’t reveal themselves? These janitors, trash collectors and hash slingers on deepclimate.org are not my judge and jury. Who appointed them to try to find something prurient in my book? I don’t have to answer to them or explain myself to them.
The deepclimate.blog also cast aspersions at my qualifications for writing a technical review of climate change, pointing out that I had not published in the field – which is true. This might have been a legitimate issue to bring up, had it not been done in such nasty aggressive tone, in which it deprecated the many accomplishments in my life. When I first submitted this book manuscript to the publisher for consideration for publishing, they sent it out for review. The first reviews came back negative. The reviewers said: “Who is this guy? He has no right to write a book on climate.” They did not attack the writing; only the writer. So, I asked the publisher to send out the book to other reviewers keeping my name out of it and not revealing who wrote it. The reviews came back glowing. There is a widespread belief that only someone who has published papers in climatology for a decade or two is qualified to write a book on climate change. I dispute that. Most researchers in climatology spend their lives within one narrow niche of the subject, but climatology consists of a very diverse range of subtopics. Climate researchers are typically not qualified to write a synoptic book covering all of these various topics. By contrast, I, being both a scientist and an accomplished system engineer, have demonstrated a rare talent to move into a field, read hundreds of papers and dozens of books, and assimilate them into a synoptic, comprehensive overview of the entire field. I have done this in a number of areas. Like Howard Cosell (“I Never Played the Game”) it is possible to be a great commentator in a sport where you never appeared on the field. The morons on deepclimate.org know who I am. Indeed, they have gone to great lengths in their personal vendetta to find out things about me, and who I am affiliated with, and made threats to contact these institutions with their bogus claims. Why are they motivated to do this? Because I remain at large, as a threat to their orthodoxy. They looked up my other books (on Mars missions, ice ages, …) and used that as ammunition against me, instead of recognizing my ability to assimilate a field and write about it. I don’t know who the morons on deepclimate.org are. They mostly hide their true names and affiliations. Of the few that did appear to (perhaps unwittingly) reveal what appears to be their names, further use of Google suggested that they are ardent blog contributors with no technical expertise in climatology or indeed any other branch of learning.
Yet, I am not hard over in opposition to their orthodoxy. I am ready and willing to examine the possibility that greenhouse gases produced the warming of the past 130 years, and that the future of the world is in jeopardy with further CO2 emissions – provided that sufficient technical proof is provided. So far, I do not see that proof in the data. There is plenty of counter evidence in the data. At this point, I don’t see how a rational person can draw definitive conclusions. But I continue to study the matter. I agree that rising CO2 is a source of concern, that it may be contributing somewhat to climate change, and that we should continue to study the matter. My mind is open. I do not subscribe to an orthodoxy with religious fervor. But the heel nippers on deepclimate.org are the Taliban of climate change – and just as dangerous. The cost of pursuing the policies that derive from their belief system will be measured in the trillions.